What the engine is showing us.
Analyses from the team, drawn from the same engine that powers our client work.
Where the narrative shifted in Q1: three races that diverged from polling
Polls captured the snapshot. Neighborhood-resolution momentum captured the move. A 90-day read on three primaries where the difference mattered.
The Suburban Bloc That Could Swing the 2026 Texas Senate Race
We scored all three Texas Senate candidates across 18,508 census block groups and found a bloc of 400,000 suburban voters whose preference flips depending on which Republican is on the ballot.
What Local TV Ad Sales Teams Are Missing in Political
How voter intelligence turns local TV ad sales teams from order takers into strategic partners
Maine Senate General Election Preview: Collins vs. Platner
With Janet Mills out, Maine's Senate race becomes a clear two-way contest between Susan Collins and Graham Platner — here's where each candidate stands on the issues Maine voters care about most.
Inside Our Virginia Prediction: Neighborhood-Level Accuracy on a Statewide Referendum
PharosGraph segmented 5,963 Virginia neighborhoods before the redistricting vote. We went back and checked our work.
California Governor's Race: Only One Democrat Is Gaining Everywhere
Ten days after Swalwell's exit, PharosGraph data shows only one candidate building support across every dimension of his fractured coalition.
Where Do Swalwell's Voters Go Now?
Polls, endorsements, and donor money point at three different candidates. PharosGraph's data shows which ones have the clearest path to Swalwell's voters, and why.
(UPDATED) A Slow Burn Met a Spark: How Five Weeks Reshaped Voter Anxiety on the Economy
In February, economic anxiety was real but scattered — no single narrative organized the pain. Then a war with Iran, a market shock, and a government funding fight converged, and five weeks of PharosGraph data reveals a national mood shifting from blame to a growing, urgent need for someone to help.
The Georgia-14 Run-off has a Warning for Both Parties and a Playbook for November
Clay Fuller won Marjorie Taylor Greene's old seat. But the margins tell a story neither side should ignore
What Predicts a Primary Winner?
Six dimensions, twelve races, and a discovery that changes how you read the electoral map. PharosGraph tested every signal in our pipeline against March's certified primary results and found that the dimensions that predict Republican winners are fundamentally different from the ones that predict Democrats.
How Our Model Predicted a Democrat Would Top Georgia's 14th; A Week Before the Vote
A Democrat topped the jungle primary in one of Georgia's most Republican districts, advancing to a runoff ahead of the Trump-endorsed candidate. PharosGraph's model called it a week before anyone else did.
The State of the Union and the Hidden Axis of Power
Every State of the Union reveals how a president believes justifies power, through authority or care, institutional competence or populist correction, and PharosGraph's ninety-year dataset shows that balance now shaping voter response in measurable ways. For campaigns, political leaders, and institutions, legitimacy framing is no longer rhetorical styling, it is a strategic variable that determines coalition durability, persuasion efficiency, and ultimately, electoral success.
A Nation Winning, a People Still Suffering. We Coded Every Actor Trump Mentioned in his 2026 SOTU
A year into his second term, Trump's 2026 SOTU cast the American People as more victimized than ever — and added the Supreme Court to his villain roster.
We Coded Every Actor in Trump's Last Two Addresses to Congress. Here's What Tuesday's SOTU Speech Has to Prove
A data-driven look at how Trump constructs his political world: who gets cast as hero, villain, and victim — and how that calculus has to change ahead of the midterms.
Re-imagining the American Dream: Why Voters Seek Heroes When the Old Story No Longer Holds
The American Dream once helped people make sense of a complex world, even if it was never fully true. As that story collapses, voters are turning to hero-framed leaders to restore agency, coherence & trust.
The Narrative Formula That Cracked a Republican Stronghold
How Aftyn Behn used Care, Fairness, and Change to drive a 13-point swing in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District—and why it matters for 2026.
The Illusion of Rational Politics
Why voters don’t decide through policy alone and how stories, emotions and moral judgment actually shape political behavior and election outcomes.
The Politics of Protagonists: How Hero Frames Are Redrawing Electoral Logic
In a society strained by complexity, voters reward the figures who carry that complexity for them. Hero-framed candidates succeeded because they made the world feel navigable again.
No Capes Required: America's Love Affair with Electable Heroes
The 2025 elections showed a clear pattern: candidates most often framed as the hero in public narratives were the ones who won. Our analysis explains how narrative roles shaped voter trust and why this matters heading into 2026.
From Fire Drills to Strategy: How Campaigns Can Rebuild Voter Trust
Alarmist fundraising is costly, inefficient and breaks trust. A smarter path is targeted, values-aligned outreach that connects with what communities actually care about, building lasting engagement instead of noise and churn.
Seeing the Field Clearly: How LLMs Are Rewriting the Rules of Political Intelligence
LLMs like ChatGPT, Claude & others are changing political campaigns by shaping how voters perceive candidates through AI-generated narratives. To win in 2026, campaigns must understand and influence how these models frame their story.
Who Voters Think is to Blame for Inflation in June
In this second ACP collaboration, communities increasingly blame Trump and corporate greed for inflation. Fewer now point to Biden, reflecting shifting local views.
Global Trade War Heroes, Villains & Victims: What five months of U.S. media teach us about Tech & Pharma reputations in 2025
In early 2025, U.S. media cast Tech and Pharma giants as heroes, villains, or victims, shaping reputations and risks in real time. PharosGraph reveals how fast sentiment shifts and why it matters.
Feeding the Fire: Inflation Snapshot vs. Reality Check
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) released last week shows inflation easing, but our Price Inflation Mood Index reveals that, for consumers, the pressure is still very real.
New Podcast Feature: Food Narratives, Ultra- Processed Fears & Public Opinion
PharosGraph’s CEO joined a podcast to discuss how stories, not science, shape public views on ultra-processed foods and health trends.
How to Reduce Waste in Political Advertising, a Case Study: James Talarico’s “Billionaire” Super Bowl Ad
James Talarico’s “Billionaires” Super Bowl ad cost over $100K to air once in Houston—but PharosGraph’s Ad Analyzer shows why it was a smart market fit. See how the ad’s strongest performance aligns with Houston’s dominant community types, and how campaigns can use PharosGraph to predict resonance and target persuadable and base voters down to the census block group before spending.